The billionaire giant suddenly collapsed

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On the morning of January 16, the Cambrian flash crash occurred, falling by more than 15% at one point, and even brought down a number of semiconductor companies such as Haiguang Information and Rockchip.

As the leader in domestic GPUs, Cambrian's stock price once reached a high of 777.77 yuan, with a market value of over 320 billion yuan. You know, this company's operating income in 2024 is expected to be less than 1.2 billion yuan, and its net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be a loss of 396 million to 484 million yuan. Such performance supports such a high market value, and the bubble is obvious.

However, the market is also very self-consistent, and a joke soon came out: Cambrian has a 1% probability of becoming NVIDIA, so the target market value should also be estimated based on 1% of NVIDIA's market value, which is referred to as the "market probability" valuation method.

Objectively speaking, Cambrian's stock price still has a purchase self-employed user data threshold for most retail investors, which makes its early chips relatively stable and easy to rise but difficult to fall.

As for today’s flash crash, it is most likely due to loose chips. There may be three reasons behind it:

1. The performance announced on January 14 did improve significantly, but it did not meet the market’s most optimistic expectations, and some products were not accepted.

2. The United States has recently implemented a series of restrictive policies on chip exports to China. The first is the classification of GPU exports to different countries. Export restrictions to China are the most stringent, which is good for the Cambrian. However, the latest market rumors are that the United States will impose another ban to restrict TSMC and Samsung from manufacturing 14nm or 16nm and below chips in China. To put it simply, not only 7nm, but also 14nm process chips must be locked.

3. The third is that Muxi has recently launched an IPO, and the scarcity of Cambrian is gradually weakening.